The British prime minister should abandon the illusion that Britain can act as a bridge between the US and Europe and opt for full-blooded European strategic autonomy, with the UK at its heart.
A very interesting analysis and one whose main conclusion (the necessity of the UK recognising the reality of its geography and thus of its European destiny) I share.
I’m a little more sceptical perhaps about Germany and whether the promise of greater defence spending will actually materialise. Fiscal hawks and deficit fundamentalists are a powerful force in German and this tendency is deeply embedded. I hope David is right and that I’m wrong, but I remain cautious.
But it’s not just Germany; most of Europe needs to significantly ramp up its defence spending and accept that the era of free-riding is over (I’m looking at you, Dublin…)
You’re right re the Weimar hyperinflation fears but I genuinely think this is a real turning poinbt a century on - across the board in. the German polity. Werden wir mal sehen…
The EU has had aspirations of a foreign policy for some time (you’d know how long, David - 1992?) but of course that is meaningless without a defence force to back it. The Common Security and Defence Policy has been in place since 1999 yet over that time European defence capability has dwindled to comedy levels.
The uncomfortable truth is it for now NATO – even with questionable support from the United States – remains a stronger guarantee of defence security in Europe than any alternative.
Having said that, I disagree with Michael with regard to Germany. If ever a country has suffered from insufficient demand excess saving, it’s Germany. If the Volk won’t spend money then the Stat must. This would have the benefits of putting some muscle behind European defence, doing something about a sclerotic German economy, and – at the same time – reduce its inordinate trade surplus. Everyone’s a winner?
It’s crazy that a bloc with a population of more than 500 million can’t defend itself against a country with the population of 170 million and a GDP about the same as South Korea or Australia. i’m glad that people like you, David, are finally realising this. Who knows, perhaps there is a place for the UK in a reformed EU sooner than you think.
Thanks Ken. Yes, 1993 (Maastricht) and, arguably from the foundation with trade...Certainly, post-1989 the EU ms relied over much on the peace dividend, especially Germany but also France, Italy...those closest to Russia (i.e. ex-Warsaw Pact) didn't...I wrote a lot about defence industry consolidation in the noughties and thereafter and, jiroinically, it was Blair who effectively scuppered a BAe/EADS merger and, before that, GEC’s own tie-up with EADS...this was a time when Boeing/Lockheed/Raytheon mounted a huge and effective campaign against “Fortress Europe” aka European consolidation - and kept their cotinuing big share of European arms procurement...so I’m not finally realising it: I’ve been at it for some time and, another irony, in the pages of the “lefty” Guardian! as for rejoin: not in my lifetime I fear
A very interesting analysis and one whose main conclusion (the necessity of the UK recognising the reality of its geography and thus of its European destiny) I share.
I’m a little more sceptical perhaps about Germany and whether the promise of greater defence spending will actually materialise. Fiscal hawks and deficit fundamentalists are a powerful force in German and this tendency is deeply embedded. I hope David is right and that I’m wrong, but I remain cautious.
But it’s not just Germany; most of Europe needs to significantly ramp up its defence spending and accept that the era of free-riding is over (I’m looking at you, Dublin…)
You’re right re the Weimar hyperinflation fears but I genuinely think this is a real turning poinbt a century on - across the board in. the German polity. Werden wir mal sehen…
The EU has had aspirations of a foreign policy for some time (you’d know how long, David - 1992?) but of course that is meaningless without a defence force to back it. The Common Security and Defence Policy has been in place since 1999 yet over that time European defence capability has dwindled to comedy levels.
The uncomfortable truth is it for now NATO – even with questionable support from the United States – remains a stronger guarantee of defence security in Europe than any alternative.
Having said that, I disagree with Michael with regard to Germany. If ever a country has suffered from insufficient demand excess saving, it’s Germany. If the Volk won’t spend money then the Stat must. This would have the benefits of putting some muscle behind European defence, doing something about a sclerotic German economy, and – at the same time – reduce its inordinate trade surplus. Everyone’s a winner?
It’s crazy that a bloc with a population of more than 500 million can’t defend itself against a country with the population of 170 million and a GDP about the same as South Korea or Australia. i’m glad that people like you, David, are finally realising this. Who knows, perhaps there is a place for the UK in a reformed EU sooner than you think.
Thanks Ken. Yes, 1993 (Maastricht) and, arguably from the foundation with trade...Certainly, post-1989 the EU ms relied over much on the peace dividend, especially Germany but also France, Italy...those closest to Russia (i.e. ex-Warsaw Pact) didn't...I wrote a lot about defence industry consolidation in the noughties and thereafter and, jiroinically, it was Blair who effectively scuppered a BAe/EADS merger and, before that, GEC’s own tie-up with EADS...this was a time when Boeing/Lockheed/Raytheon mounted a huge and effective campaign against “Fortress Europe” aka European consolidation - and kept their cotinuing big share of European arms procurement...so I’m not finally realising it: I’ve been at it for some time and, another irony, in the pages of the “lefty” Guardian! as for rejoin: not in my lifetime I fear
Fascinating. Hard time to be a Blair / Liam Fox Atlanticist…